Tag Archives: economy

America First No More as IMF Sees U.S. Fading as Growth Engine

The world is leaning less on its biggest economy to sustain the global recovery, according to the International Monetary Fund.The fund left its forecast for global growth unchanged in the latest quarterly update to its World Economic Outlook, released Monday in Kuala Lumpur. The world economy will expand 3.5 percent this year, up from 3.2 percent in 2016, and by 3.6 percent next year, the IMF said. The forecasts for this year and next are unchanged from the fund’s projections in April.Beneath the headline figures, though, the drivers of the recovery are shifting, with the world relying less than expected on the U.S. and U.K. and more on China, Japan, the euro zone and Canada, according to the Washington-based IMF.The dollar fell to its lowest in 14 months last week as investors discounted the ability of President Donald Trump’s administration to deliver on its economic agenda after efforts by the Republican Senate to overhaul health care collapsed.The IMF estimated U.S. growth at 2.1 percent this year and again in 2018, consistent with what the fund said June 27 in its annual assessment of the U.S. economy. In the April world economic outlook, it had forecast U.S. growth of 2.3 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively, in 2017 and 2018. The economy expanded by 1.6 percent in 2016.

Source: America First No More as IMF Sees U.S. Fading as Growth Engine

GHP Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Metro Employment Report

July 21, 2017
The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land metro area created 10,700 jobs in June and 56,100 over the previous 12 months, according to data released today by the Texas Workforce Commission. The monthly job gain was on par with the region’s 20-year average of 11,000 jobs added for a June. The 12-month job growth was well above the 20-year average of 48,300 jobs. Houston’s total nonfarm payroll employment now stands at 3,058,900, a new high for the metro.

Full report:

http://www.houston.org/pdf/research/narratives/Employment/Employment_Update.pdf

U.S. Industrial Production Unexpectedly Comes In Flat In October; September revised down

Industrial production in the U.S. was unchanged in the month of October, according to a report released by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, with a steep drop in utilities output offsetting a jump in mining.

The Fed said industrial production came in flat in October after dropping by a revised 0.2 percent in September. Economists had expected production to match the 0.1 percent uptick originally reported for the previous month.

Utilities output fell sharply for the second consecutive month, plunging by 2.6 percent in October after tumbling by 3.0 percent in September.

Source: U.S. Industrial Production Unexpectedly Comes In Flat In October

IMF Signals Another Downgrade to Global Growth – WSJ

The failure of policy makers to fix deep-rooted problems in the world’s largest economies has pitched the globe into the worst slow-growth rut in nearly three decades.And it could be about to get even worse, the International Monetary Fund said Thursday, signaling another downgrade ahead in its global growth outlook.The IMF warned leaders of the Group of 20 largest economies meeting later this week in China that the global economy is at risk of stalling without urgent action to revive dismal trade and investment levels, and stronger efforts to reverse a rising tide of protectionism.“The political pendulum threatens to swing against economic openness, and without forceful policy actions, the world could suffer from disappointing growth for a long time,” said IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde.“High frequency data points to softer growth this year,” the IMF said in the G-20 report.

Source: IMF Signals Another Downgrade to Global Growth – WSJ

Global Recession Risk Above 50% on Brexit, T. Rowe Price Warns – Bloomberg

The risk of a global recession is now more than 50 percent after Britain voted to leave the European Union, according to asset manager T. Rowe Price Group Inc., which oversees more than $765 billion in assets.“Those who believe Brexit is a U.K. problem are misunderstanding the impact it will have globally. They’re forgetting the impact that Greece had – and Greece is much smaller than the U.K. and not a financial center,” said Arif Husain, head of international fixed income at T. Rowe Price in e-mailed comments. “The vote to leave could result in a global recession.”

Source: Global Recession Risk Above 50% on Brexit, T. Rowe Price Warns – Bloomberg

IMF cuts global growth forecast, warns of stagnation risk | Reuters

The International Monetary Fund cut its global growth forecast for the fourth time in the past year on Tuesday, citing China’s slowdown, persistently low oil prices and chronic weakness in advanced economies.The Fund, whose spring meetings along with the World Bank will be held in Washington this week, forecast that the global economy would grow at 3.2 percent in 2016 compared to its previous forecast of 3.4 percent in January.In its latest World Economic Outlook, the Fund warned of widespread stagnation risk and said weaker growth could leave the global economy more vulnerable to shocks such as currency depreciations or worsening geopolitical conflicts.The Fund called on global policymakers attending the IMF and World Bank meetings to take coordinated actions to boost demand with structural economic reforms, fiscal stimulus where possible and accommodative monetary policy.”Lower growth means less room for error,” IMF chief economist Maurice Obstfeld said in a statement. “Persistent slow growth has scarring effects that…reduce potential output and with it, demand and investment.”

Source: IMF cuts global growth forecast, warns of stagnation risk | Reuters