Goldman’s Currie Says Crude Oil May Stay Low for Next 15 Years

Wednesday, September 16, 2015 03:52 PM
by Robert Tuttle

(Bloomberg) — “Very high probability” prices will stay low through end of next decade, Jeff Currie, head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, says in interview in Lake Louise, Alberta.

Goldman’s official forecast extends to 2020, sees longer term oil price at $50/bbl,

“Risks are to the down side given what’s going on in other commodity markets”

World shifting from “investment phase” of ~30 yr commodity cycle to “exploitation phase” with shale as main source of output
Lower iron ore, copper, steel prices and weaker currencies in commodity-producing countries have reduced costs for oil producers

“The question becomes, how long will this resource base last? History says 10 to 15 years, however there is a lot of uncertainty”
Oil has >50% chance of drop to $20/bbl, most likely when refineries shut in Oct. or March

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